A glimmer of good economic news? Maybe not

by Erik Randolph | Aug 17, 2022

A glimmer of good economic news? Maybe not

Key Points

As of June, 35 states and D.C. have not recovered the number of lost jobs
The labor force has shrunk despite population growth.
Its stated goal of the Federal Reserve remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.

It may not matter if federal policy does not change.

We’ve seen some back-to-back encouraging news within the last few weeks. The Employment Situation Report for July showed that the United States finally recovered the number of its lost jobs from the start of the pandemic, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for July was essentially zero. But digging a little deeper to put the news into perspective reveals real concerns that stagflation will not end anytime soon.

The States Who Are Driving the Job Recovery

On the jobs front, yes, it’s true we’ve recovered the number of lost jobs benchmarked to February 2020 before the drastic impact on the labor market from COVID-19. This indicates we’re on the mend, but the job recovery process has not been the “V” shape hoped for at the beginning of the pandemic, one that would have meant a robust job recovery.

Two-and-a-half years later, the civilian non-institutionalized population base that feeds the labor force grew by 4.8 million. Our own ARIMA Model job forecast shows we are approximately 5.8 million jobs short of where we would have been had the pandemic not happened.

But this is not the case for all 50 states. Astoundingly, four states—Montana, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming—have matched or nearly matched their pre-pandemic ARIMA Model forecasts, effectively eliminating any impact from the pandemic on the number of lost jobs.

In the meantime, the national job recovery to pre-pandemic levels is driven probably by just 15 states who already recovered their number of lost jobs prior to the nation as a whole. These states are Utah, Idaho, Texas, Montana, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona, South Dakota, Colorado, Arkansas, Indiana, and Nevada.

As of June, the remaining 35 states and D.C. have not recovered the number of lost jobs. We have to wait another week before we know whether another state slipped onto the list of leading states that helped tip the balance for the national July data.

According to our analysis, a common feature of the leading states is that they tend to have policies that value economic freedom more than the other states do. Incidentally, and for explanatory reasons and not for the purpose of getting political, all but three of the 15 leading states have given political control to the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature to the Republican Party.

Jobs Versus People Employed

One problem with job data is that the dataset allows for double counting. If we want to count the number of people employed, it paints a different picture.

The Current Population Survey shows the U.S. is still more than half a million workers short when compared to February 2020. In fact, we had fewer employed persons in July than March of this year, using seasonally adjusted data.

The reason is that the labor force has shrunk despite population growth. This can be seen with the 62.1% labor force participation rate that is more than a percentage point below where it stood in February 2020.

This means that the 3.5% unemployment rate—which now matches its pre-pandemic level—is misleading. The shrinkage of the labor force is distorting the meaning of the metric.

Taken together on a national scale, jobs have recovered but the number of employed persons has not. This can mean only one thing. More people are working multiple jobs to make ends meet.

Inflation versus the Price Level

July’s CPI ever-so-slightly decreased. It ticked down 0.2% at an annualized rate–a welcome change from the past 25 months. Just to keep this in perspective, the price level nonetheless increased 14.1% since the start of the pandemic. But there is no need to tell this to average consumers who have been feeling it in their pocketbooks.

Disturbingly, the Federal Reserve shows no interest in doing something about the elevated price level–and who isn’t even discussing it. Its stated goal remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.

“Disturbingly, the Federal Reserve shows no interest in doing something about the elevated price level–and who isn’t even discussing it. Its stated goal remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.”

Fiscal and Regulatory Policy

The Federal Reserve does not stand alone with its bad policy. Congress and the Administration are just as guilty, if not more so.

Excessive fiscal spending also drives up the price level. Worse, increasing business taxes will pull resources from businesses. These resources are needed to produce goods and services that we all use and enjoy. It also enables these very same businesses to pay workers and compensate investors, and it leads to more economic growth and prosperity. Likewise, more excessive regulatory restrictions have similar negative effects on people and the economy.

Increasing business taxes and regulating businesses even more at this time will not help keep prices down. Rather, a good portion of these higher costs will be passed onto consumers. And they will be passed on to consumers to the degree that individual businesses are able to do so. If businesses can’t pass all or even some of those costs on to consumers, then they will be forced to make more difficult decisions, such as cutting back on the number of employees or suspending pay raises to employees. Profits will clearly suffer that may cause a few businesses to scale back or exit the industry altogether. These consequential actions all aggravate stagnation. Add in the price increases and we get more stagflation, not less.

Unfortunately, the President just signed into law the erroneously named Inflation Reduction Act that will do nothing about inflation, but it will hike business taxes and increase regulations that will only worsen the economic situation.

Congress and the Administration need to start following the lead from the states who are doing it right. Only pro- growth policies relying on innovation and production organically sprouted from within the economy will help us out of this mess, and it won’t work if politicians think that means taking money from successful businesses or imposing new mandates on others or picking the winners and losers in the economy.

Elevate relationship classes are helping couples recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

by David Bass | Aug 15, 2022

Elevate relationship classes are helping couples recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

Key Points

Elevate program: couples are enrolled in eight 90-minute sessions that cover the seven core skills and qualities for relational health.
Elevate is available free-of-charge to couples.
Elevate classes provide — an opportunity for couples to practice better intentionality, to understand their partner better, and how to prioritize their relationship.

Today, couples face both internal and external pressures like never before. Many couples who weren’t struggling before the pandemic are struggling now, while those who were already in crisis now face an even worse situation.

Thankfully, there is a resource for couples in Georgia. It’s called the Elevate program and it’s a core part of the Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) mission.

Through the Elevate program, couples are enrolled in eight 90-minute sessions that cover the seven core skills and qualities for relational health. Given the need for a remote option, workshops are available both in-person in 12 counties in Georgia — including Gwinnett, Henry, and Houston counties — and virtual workshops where couples can participate from home.

Topics covered include how to:

Be more intentional and focused in your relationship
Better manage stress in your life
Strengthen your connection with each other
Develop a greater appreciation for one another
Spend more quality time together
Deal with differences in healthy ways
Build support for your relationship and family

To learn more about Elevate and how you can participate in one of the upcoming workshops, click here.

One of the best parts is that Elevate is available free-of-charge to couples. This is made possible through a federal grant through the Fostering Relationship and Economic Enrichment Project (Project F.R.E.E.).

There is a common thread in what Elevate classes provide — an opportunity for couples to practice better intentionality, to understand their partner better, and how to prioritize their relationship.

“I appreciate my spouse more as a result of the Elevate experience,” shared one class participant.

Another said, “The biggest thing we gained were ways to refocus the positivity in our relationship even when conflict arises and life is difficult.”

Still another couple shared that Elevate enabled them to communicate on a more intimate level: “We still have layers to work through but the Elevate experience has given us fresh insight to navigate our path forward.”

Here are a few of the reasons couples chose to enroll in Elevate:

Create better intentional dialogue between partners
Create a closer connection through communication
Meet other couples similar to us
Tips for understanding my partner better
How to handle stressful moments in a relationship

“What I love about Elevate are the techniques that they teach the couples when dealing or handling stressors in their life,” said Katherine Greene, healthy families program manager for GCO. “I also love the way it taps into helping couples understand how their emotions, thoughts, and behaviors can influence their decision making and physical health. Elevate is extremely engaging and makes every interaction applicable to the lives of the couples, their family, and community.”

AEI’s Ian Rowe brings his experience & knowledge to the Breakthrough event

by David Bass | Aug 15, 2022

AEI’s Ian Rowe brings his experience & knowledge to the Breakthrough event

Key Points

Mr. Rowe has emerged as a dynamic voice on education, upward economic mobility, family formation, the Success Sequence, and adoption.
The family Breakthrough event will focus on the importance of people of all ages knowing their ABCs — Attitude, Behavior, and Choices.
The event is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia. Lunch is included.

There is a close link between the quality of your relationships and the quality of your work life. To further explore and explain this link, the Georgia Center for Opportunity team is honored to welcome Ian Rowe — senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute — to our upcoming family Breakthrough event focused on family and relational health.

The event is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia. Lunch is included.

The family Breakthrough event will focus on the importance of people of all ages knowing their ABCs — Attitude, Behavior, and Choices. Martin Seligman, the father of human flourishing, says that to flourish is to find fulfillment in our lives, to accomplish meaningful and worthwhile tasks, and to connect with others at a deeper level. In essence, to live “the good life.” But “the good life” is impossible if your relationships are broken and you’re living in poverty.

Ian Rowe will address the link for us. Mr. Rowe has emerged as a dynamic voice on education, upward economic mobility, family formation, the Success Sequence, and adoption. The Success Sequence is the basic idea that those who follow a three-step process — graduate from high school, wait until marriage for children, and get a full-time job — are virtually guaranteed to not be in poverty. They also have a strong likelihood of entering the middle class.

Mr. Rowe is also co-founder of Vertex Partnership Academies, a new network of character-based International Baccalaureate high schools opening in the Bronx in 2022; the chairman of the board of Spence-Chapin, a nonprofit adoption services organization; and the co-founder of the National Summer School Initiative.

“When it comes to fighting poverty and creating opportunity, Ian Rowe is one of the most effective and eloquent leaders in the United States,” shares Randy Hicks, GCO’s president and CEO. “His leadership isn’t just based in theory and his expansive knowledge, but in his hands-on experience in leading and serving schools that are transforming lives.”

Randy will guide the discussion with Mr. Rowe at the family Breakthrough event. Topics will include:

What is the correlation between broken relationships and poverty?
Can you have one without the other?
If there were no broken relationships, would poverty exist?

Local schools and nonprofit, Every Woman Works, lend their voice at Breakthrough

by David Bass | Aug 8, 2022

Local schools and nonprofit, Every Woman Works, lend their voice at Breakthrough

Key Points

Speakers will include:

Michael Doyne, principal of Lilburn Middle School
Dr. Natalie Looney, principal of Summerour Middle School in Norcross
Kristen Hypolite, chief operations officer with the nonprofit Every Woman Works based in Roswell, Georgia

A key part of our mission at the Georgia Center for Opportunity is to turn broken relationships into flourishing families. Today, more than ever, there are shattered relationships across our culture — at home, at work, and at school. But even as the problems exist in our communities, we firmly believe that our communities also offer the solutions.

That’s why we are organizing a new Breakthrough event focused on community solutions to family and relational health. The event is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia. Lunch is included.

A major part of the effort will focus on the need to reach young people with relationship skill building while they are still in school. It’s still early enough to teach these students the fundamental building blocks of healthy relationships, so they can have the right attitude and drive their behavior toward good choices. While many of them have already experienced broken relationships in the home, it’s not too early to make an impact.

Along these lines, we will be featuring speakers who have vast experience and a deep understanding of these issues.

Michael Doyne and Dr. Natalie Looney

The first of these is Michael Doyne, principal of Lilburn Middle School. GCO has partnered with the school to present four sessions of our Strengthening Families Program. At least 100 families have gone through this program, which has been offered in Spanish. The school has seen a huge improvement in the relationships of their students and amongst the parents themselves.

Another panel will feature Dr. Natalie Looney, principal of Summerour Middle School in Norcross. GCO is preparing to offer our Strengthening Families Program class at Summerour beginning in September.

Questions for both Mr. Doyne and Dr. Looney will include:

How have relationships at your schools changed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic?
How haven’t they changed? How are things still the same?
What led you to partner with GCO?
What approaches do you find at most successful at helping students and parents today?

Kristen Hypolite of Every Woman Works (EWW)

Another panel discussion will be with Kristen Hypolite, chief operations officer with the nonprofit Every Woman Works based in Roswell, Georgia. EWW’s mission is to equip women with the training and resources needed to attain self-sufficiency and achieve gainful employment. EWW helps women re-engineer their lives, understanding where they came from and the attitudes and beliefs they can change to improve their lives.

Questions covered will include:

How has the strong partnership between EWW and GCO strengthened the EWW community?
How has this partnership benefitted the women in your program?
What are you seeing in the clients you serve to implement healthy relationships skills training in your program?
Before the women enter your program, what Attitudes, Behaviors and Choices (ABCs) are you seeing?
In what ways have you seen the ABC’s transformed the ladies differently after attending the relationship skills training?

Don’t miss this line-up of speakers at our family Breakthrough event

by David Bass | Jul 27, 2022

Don’t miss this line-up of speakers at our family Breakthrough event

Key Points

Event is Thursday, August 25 from 10:30am to 12:30pm
Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia
Dive into the Attitudes, Behaviors, and Choices (ABCs) of individuals and families

Our upcoming event focused on family and relational health features a line-up of speakers you’ll definitely want to come out to hear.

As a reminder, the family Breakthrough event sponsored by the Georgia Center for Opportunity is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia.

At the event, we will do a deep dive into the Attitudes, Behaviors, and Choices (ABCs) of individuals and families and how those relate to relational and, more broadly, community health. We want you there!

Here are our featured speakers:

Kristen Hypolite, COO of Every Woman Works

Kristen is an engineer by trade and utilizes her talents in helping the women of EWW help reengineer who they are.

Dr. Natalie Looney, Principal of Summerour Middle School

Natalie has served as head of Summerour Middle School since 2019 but has worked in public education for over 20 years. She has been married for 23 years and has two wonderful children.

Michael Doyne, Parent Instructional Coordinator at Lilburn Middle School

Michael has worked as the Parent Instructional Coordinator at Lilburn Middle School for 13 years. He speaks English and Spanish, and he enjoys travel and hanging out with his friends and family.

Ian Rowe, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

At AIE, Ian focuses on education and upward mobility, family formation, and adoption. Ian is also the co-founder of Vertex Partnership Academies, a new network of character-based International Baccalaureate high schools opening in the Bronx in 2022; the chairman of the board of Spence-Chapin, a nonprofit adoption services organization; and the cofounder of the National Summer School Initiative. He concurrently serves as a senior visiting fellow at the Woodson Center and a writer for the 1776 Unites Campaign.

Education Promise Scholarships Should be a Winning Issue

by Buzz Brockway | Jul 27, 2022

Education Promise Scholarships Should be a Winning Issue

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a watershed moment for expanding educational options for Georgia students. For many parents and families, the pandemic was the crisis point that showed them, in stark reality, the dire need for a full menu of educational options – whether that be a traditional public school, a public charter school, virtual educational programs or home education.

You don t have to look far to understand why. During the worst of the pandemic and resulting school closures, many familes were forced into alternative ways of schooling for tthe first time ever. Families’ experience with how traditional public schools handled the shift to distance learning were mixed and inconsistent. Some schools and teachers excelled, ensuring students did not lose out on learning. Others threw their hands up –and the towel in — early. Kids have suffered as a result.

Read the full article here