Homicides were likely down nationwide—about 4% according to one report—in 2022. But declining national numbers only tell part of the story. Families and individuals don’t live in “the nation.” They live in specific communities that are much smaller. Unfortunately, the homicide declines experienced in the aggregate did not translate evenly across these communities.
Seattle’s Murder Rate Goes Opposite the National Decline
2022 began what we have referred to as “the great crime divide” in which some cities saw dramatic decreases in homicide—40% in Richmond, VA, and 11% in Austin, TX, for example—while other cities continued to see increases in homicides. One of those cities, Seattle, WA, saw a 13% increase in homicides in 2022 compared to 2021.
A recently released annual crime report from the Washington Association of Sheriffs further details this increase and shows a 15% rise in homicides statewide in Washington, once again setting a record for murders. Equally troubling, aggravated assaults, robberies, and car thefts were also up statewide. Car thefts are typically a good proxy for property crime because they have such high reporting rates relative to other property offenses.
Seattle’s Crime Problem Is a Policy Choice
Once again, it’s clear that rising crime is a policy choice. Beginning in 2020, the Seattle City Council voted two years in a row to cut police funding and are now down more than 350 police officers due to resignations and early retirements. Seattle has also become one of the national standard-bearers for “revolving door” justice. The Seattle Times used a 2022 arrest to highlight the problem.
Cuong Cao, was, as of Friday, still loose, described now by a federal justice spokesperson as a “fugitive.” There’s no reason for him to be a fugitive though, because he was arrested at 12th and Jackson last month, after police say they watched him selling fentanyl pills on the sidewalk and then crouching over a woman who was overdosing.
When Cao was booked, he was carrying heroin, meth and 88 “blues” — street slang for fentanyl pills — along with $800 in cash and a Canik 9-mm pistol. He’s got a slew of felony convictions for burglary, car theft and drug dealing, and he’s had 39 arrest warrants going back 20 years because of a propensity to not show up in court.
Yet he was out of jail 45 hours later on just $2,500 bail, down from the $75,000 requested by prosecutors.
State policymakers have also played a role in exacerbating Washington’s crime problem. In 2021 they passed into law two “police reform” bills (here and here) that limited pursuits, use of force, and other tactics in a way that likely discouraged proactive policing. But the bad ideas roll on. Legislators have filed, but not yet passed bills that allow for early release for violent felons and reduce penalties for drive-by shootings. Passage of these measures would only make a bad situation worse, and further push Washington state down the path to more crime and more disorder.
