New economic data shows that Georgia is outperforming many states

New economic data shows that Georgia is outperforming many states

In The News

New economic data shows that Georgia is outperforming many states

Minnesota saw the best change in unemployment, while the District of Columbia reported the worst change, according to WalletHub. Nationwide, 18 states have recovered all their jobs lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, a Georgia non-profit is crediting Georgia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic for its economic standing.

“While the White House is taking credit for the job recovery, the credit really belongs to just 18 states — and Georgia is among them,” Erik Randolph, director of research for the Georgia Center for Opportunity, said in a statement. “These states are the only ones who have recovered all their jobs lost to COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns.

New economic data shows that Georgia is outperforming many states

Georgia policy groups say Biden plan to forgive student loan debt ‘simply transfers the burden to taxpayers’

In The News

Georgia policy groups say Biden plan to forgive student loan debt ‘simply transfers the burden to taxpayers’

(The Center Square) — President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive some federal student loan debt received a lukewarm reaction from some Georgia groups who say the policy is unfair and won’t help ease inflation.

“We’re disappointed to see yet another policy out of Washington that creates more problems than it solves,” Eric Cochling, the chief program officer and general counsel for the Georgia Center for Opportunity, said. “In addition to contributing to already runaway inflation, this plan from the White House doesn’t actually forgive debt, it simply transfers the burden to taxpayers.”

A glimmer of good economic news? Maybe not

A glimmer of good economic news? Maybe not

A glimmer of good economic news? Maybe not

Key Points

  • As of June, 35 states and D.C. have not recovered the number of lost jobs
  • The labor force has shrunk despite population growth.
  • Its stated goal of the Federal Reserve remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.

It may not matter if federal policy does not change.

We’ve seen some back-to-back encouraging news within the last few weeks. The Employment Situation Report for July showed that the United States finally recovered the number of its lost jobs from the start of the pandemic, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for July was essentially zero. But digging a little deeper to put the news into perspective reveals real concerns that stagflation will not end anytime soon.

The States Who Are Driving the Job Recovery

On the jobs front, yes, it’s true we’ve recovered the number of lost jobs benchmarked to February 2020 before the drastic impact on the labor market from COVID-19. This indicates we’re on the mend, but the job recovery process has not been the “V” shape hoped for at the beginning of the pandemic, one that would have meant a robust job recovery. 

Two-and-a-half years later, the civilian non-institutionalized population base that feeds the labor force grew by 4.8 million. Our own ARIMA Model job forecast shows we are approximately 5.8 million jobs short of where we would have been had the pandemic not happened. 

But this is not the case for all 50 states. Astoundingly, four states—Montana, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming—have matched or nearly matched their pre-pandemic ARIMA Model forecasts, effectively eliminating any impact from the pandemic on the number of lost jobs. 

In the meantime, the national job recovery to pre-pandemic levels is driven probably by just 15 states who already recovered their number of lost jobs prior to the nation as a whole. These states are Utah, Idaho, Texas, Montana, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona, South Dakota, Colorado, Arkansas, Indiana, and Nevada. 

As of June, the remaining 35 states and D.C. have not recovered the number of lost jobs. We have to wait another week before we know whether another state slipped onto the list of leading states that helped tip the balance for the national July data. 

According to our analysis, a common feature of the leading states is that they tend to have policies that value economic freedom more than the other states do. Incidentally, and for explanatory reasons and not for the purpose of getting political, all but three of the 15 leading states have given political control to the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature to the Republican Party.

Jobs Versus People Employed 

One problem with job data is that the dataset allows for double counting. If we want to count the number of people employed, it paints a different picture. 

The Current Population Survey shows the U.S. is still more than half a million workers short when compared to February 2020. In fact, we had fewer employed persons in July than March of this year, using seasonally adjusted data. 

The reason is that the labor force has shrunk despite population growth. This can be seen with the 62.1% labor force participation rate that is more than a percentage point below where it stood in February 2020.

This means that the 3.5% unemployment rate—which now matches its pre-pandemic level—is misleading. The shrinkage of the labor force is distorting the meaning of the metric.

Taken together on a national scale, jobs have recovered but the number of employed persons has not. This can mean only one thing. More people are working multiple jobs to make ends meet. 

Inflation versus the Price Level

July’s CPI ever-so-slightly decreased. It ticked down 0.2% at an annualized rate–a welcome change from the past 25 months. Just to keep this in perspective, the price level nonetheless increased 14.1% since the start of the pandemic. But there is no need to tell this to average consumers who have been feeling it in their pocketbooks. 

Disturbingly, the Federal Reserve shows no interest in doing something about the elevated price level–and who isn’t even discussing it. Its stated goal remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.

 

stagflation

“Disturbingly, the Federal Reserve shows no interest in doing something about the elevated price level–and who isn’t even discussing it. Its stated goal remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.”

“Disturbingly, the Federal Reserve shows no interest in doing something about the elevated price level–and who isn’t even discussing it. Its stated goal remains the same–to reduce inflation to its 2% target, meaning it will take steps to prevent the price level from coming back down. This bad policy goal will burden the working class and the poor and retired persons the most.”

Fiscal and Regulatory Policy

The Federal Reserve does not stand alone with its bad policy. Congress and the Administration are just as guilty, if not more so.

Excessive fiscal spending also drives up the price level. Worse, increasing business taxes will pull  resources from businesses. These resources are needed to produce goods and services that we all use and enjoy. It also enables these very same businesses to pay workers and compensate investors, and it leads to more economic growth and prosperity. Likewise, more excessive regulatory restrictions have similar negative effects on people and the economy.

Increasing business taxes and regulating businesses even more at this time will not help keep prices down. Rather, a good portion of these higher costs will be passed onto consumers.  And they will be passed on to consumers to the degree that individual businesses are able to do so. If businesses can’t pass all or even some of those costs on to consumers, then they will be forced to make more difficult decisions, such as cutting back on the number of employees or suspending pay raises to employees. Profits will clearly suffer that may cause a few businesses to scale back or exit the industry altogether. These consequential actions all aggravate stagnation. Add in the price increases and we get more stagflation, not less.

Unfortunately, the President just signed into law the erroneously named Inflation Reduction Act that will do nothing about inflation, but it will hike business taxes and increase regulations that will only worsen the economic situation. 

Congress and the Administration need to start following the lead from the states who are doing it right. Only pro- growth policies relying on innovation and production organically sprouted from within the economy will help us out of this mess, and it won’t work if politicians think that means taking money from successful businesses or imposing new mandates on others or picking the winners and losers in the economy.



 

Elevate relationship classes are helping couples recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

Elevate relationship classes are helping couples recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

Elevate relationship classes are helping couples recover from the COVID-19 pandemic

Key Points

  • Elevate program: couples are enrolled in eight 90-minute sessions that cover the seven core skills and qualities for relational health.
  • Elevate is available free-of-charge to couples.
  •  Elevate classes provide — an opportunity for couples to practice better intentionality, to understand their partner better, and how to prioritize their relationship.

Today, couples face both internal and external pressures like never before. Many couples who weren’t struggling before the pandemic are struggling now, while those who were already in crisis now face an even worse situation.

Thankfully, there is a resource for couples in Georgia. It’s called the Elevate program and it’s a core part of the Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) mission.

Through the Elevate program, couples are enrolled in eight 90-minute sessions that cover the seven core skills and qualities for relational health. Given the need for a remote option, workshops are available both in-person in 12 counties in Georgia — including Gwinnett, Henry, and Houston counties — and virtual workshops where couples can participate from home.

Topics covered include how to:

  • Be more intentional and focused in your relationship
  • Better manage stress in your life
  • Strengthen your connection with each other
  • Develop a greater appreciation for one another
  • Spend more quality time together
  • Deal with differences in healthy ways
  • Build support for your relationship and family

To learn more about Elevate and how you can participate in one of the upcoming workshops, click here.

 

To learn more about Elevate and how you can participate in one of the upcoming workshops, click here.

One of the best parts is that Elevate is available free-of-charge to couples. This is made possible through a federal grant through the Fostering Relationship and Economic Enrichment Project (Project F.R.E.E.).

There is a common thread in what Elevate classes provide — an opportunity for couples to practice better intentionality, to understand their partner better, and how to prioritize their relationship.

“I appreciate my spouse more as a result of the Elevate experience,” shared one class participant.

Another said, “The biggest thing we gained were ways to refocus the positivity in our relationship even when conflict arises and life is difficult.”

Still another couple shared that Elevate enabled them to communicate on a more intimate level: “We still have layers to work through but the Elevate experience has given us fresh insight to navigate our path forward.”

Here are a few of the reasons couples chose to enroll in Elevate:

  • Create better intentional dialogue between partners
  • Create a closer connection through communication
  • Meet other couples similar to us
  • Tips for understanding my partner better
  • How to handle stressful moments in a relationship

“What I love about Elevate are the techniques that they teach the couples when dealing or handling stressors in their life,” said Katherine Greene, healthy families program manager for GCO. “I also love the way it taps into helping couples understand how their emotions, thoughts, and behaviors can influence their decision making and physical health. Elevate is extremely engaging and makes every interaction applicable to the lives of the couples, their family, and community.”

AEI’s Ian Rowe brings his experience & knowledge to the Breakthrough event

AEI’s Ian Rowe brings his experience & knowledge to the Breakthrough event

AEI’s Ian Rowe brings his experience & knowledge to the Breakthrough event

Key Points

  • Mr. Rowe has emerged as a dynamic voice on education, upward economic mobility, family formation, the Success Sequence, and adoption.
  • The family Breakthrough event will focus on the importance of people of all ages knowing their ABCs — Attitude, Behavior, and Choices.
  • The event is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia. Lunch is included.

There is a close link between the quality of your relationships and the quality of your work life. To further explore and explain this link, the Georgia Center for Opportunity team is honored to welcome Ian Rowe — senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute — to our upcoming family Breakthrough event focused on family and relational health.

The event is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia. Lunch is included.

 

The family Breakthrough event will focus on the importance of people of all ages knowing their ABCs — Attitude, Behavior, and Choices. Martin Seligman, the father of human flourishing, says that to flourish is to find fulfillment in our lives, to accomplish meaningful and worthwhile tasks, and to connect with others at a deeper level. In essence, to live “the good life.” But “the good life” is impossible if your relationships are broken and you’re living in poverty.

Ian Rowe will address the link for us. Mr. Rowe has emerged as a dynamic voice on education, upward economic mobility, family formation, the Success Sequence, and adoption. The Success Sequence is the basic idea that those who follow a three-step process — graduate from high school, wait until marriage for children, and get a full-time job — are virtually guaranteed to not be in poverty. They also have a strong likelihood of entering the middle class.

Mr. Rowe is also co-founder of Vertex Partnership Academies, a new network of character-based International Baccalaureate high schools opening in the Bronx in 2022; the chairman of the board of Spence-Chapin, a nonprofit adoption services organization; and the co-founder of the National Summer School Initiative.

“When it comes to fighting poverty and creating opportunity, Ian Rowe is one of the most effective and eloquent leaders in the United States,” shares Randy Hicks, GCO’s president and CEO. “His leadership isn’t just based in theory and his expansive knowledge, but in his hands-on experience in leading and serving schools that are transforming lives.”

Randy will guide the discussion with Mr. Rowe at the family Breakthrough event. Topics will include:

  • What is the correlation between broken relationships and poverty?

  • Can you have one without the other?

  • If there were no broken relationships, would poverty exist?