What’s Georgia’s Real Unemployment Number?

What’s Georgia’s Real Unemployment Number?

What’s Georgia’s Real Unemployment Number?

By Erik Randolph

Don’t be fooled by Georgia’s unemployment rate. While many are breathing a sigh of relief that barely one in ten Georgian’s are out of work, the reality is much worse.

Georgia’s unemployment rate (U-3) dropped to 9.7% last month—according to official numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released today.  

This number is adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, if that still makes sense given the current conditions. Otherwise, Georgia’s rate would be 9.5%, relatively close due to the time of the year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly makes adjustments to smooth out the data from the impact of seasonal employment, such as temporary employment during the Christmas season, teenagers working as summer camp counselors, or landscaping jobs dependent on the growing season. The smoothing out of data is intended to help economists detect trends more easily. 

The sense of relief comes from more dismal expectations that the unemployment rate itself could have been much worse—especially considering the unprecedented havoc on the economy from COVID-19—and from the encouraging news that Georgia is among the 38 states where the rates are coming down. 

 Georgia’s unemployment rate is among the lowest of the states. The nation’s rate was 13.3% (adjusted). Three states—Nevada, Michigan, and Hawaii—had seasonally adjusted rates of 25.3%, 22.6%, and 21.2%, respectively. 

However, one in ten workers unemployed is still very high. There were 475,338 unemployed Georgians last month (seasonally adjusted). That number was 161,147 in February. The state went from a historic low unemployment rate of 3.1% (adjusted) to a record high of 12.6% (adjusted) in just two months. 

 

 

The Loose Link

The situation is actually worse than what the unemployment numbers show. First, there is a loose relationship between employment and the labor force. The Bureau counts only those who are employed or actively looking for work as part of the labor force. 

When the economy does well and jobs are more plentiful, the labor force grows in size because more people decide to enter or reenter the labor force. However, when the economy grows sluggish and jobs become harder to find, the opposite happens: the labor force shrinks.

The labor force participation rate demonstrates this well-known phenomenon. The chart below illustrates this relationship in Georgia. By definition, the labor force participation rate shows the percentage of workers in the labor force to the potential population of those who could be in the labor force, defined as all individuals age 16 and older who are not institutionalized, such as in prison, and—as the Bureau of Labor Statistics defines it—not in the military. 

Of course, there are other factors at work. The aging population is pushing down the participation rate. An issue of great concern is the increasing proportion of individuals in their prime working age who have dropped out of the labor force altogether. This has been a topic of study from across the political spectrum, and recessions seem to only aggravate the trend. 

The size of the recent labor force loss is astounding. A record number of 262,577 Georgians dropped out of the labor force in April. This is the seasonally adjusted number. The unadjusted number is 286,733. 

The labor force bounced back just 0.1% in May, but still the net effect is that 256,208 individuals dropped out since February. 

What this all means is that 570,399 Georgians either lost employment or dropped out of the labor force since February. If you add back in the 161,147 who were unemployed in February, there are at least 731,546 workers either unemployed or who dropped out, and 751,116 workers if we use unadjusted numbers. 

 

 

However, we are still missing one part of the analysis. Prior to February, the labor force was growing and grew at a rate of 1.6% from the prior year (unadjusted). This implies that the labor force number should have grown over the last three months, perhaps to 5,208,019 in May (adjusted). This would make the combined unemployment/labor force problem closer to 15.0% (adjusted), or 14.8% (unadjusted).

It Gets Even Worse

The official unemployment rate does not capture everyone, including those who are working part-time but want to work full-time. For this, we must turn to the alternative measurement of labor underutilization known as U-6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ broadest metric. The national number jumped from 7.4% in February to 22.4% in April, and back down to 20.7% in May. 

Unfortunately, the Bureau does not publish U-6 on a monthly basis for the states. For statistical reliability reasons, they only provide annual rolling averages each quarter year. 

Most recently, Georgia’s annual rolling average U-6, ending the first quarter of 2020, was 6.7% compared to the national rolling average of 7.2%. This implies that Georgia’s U-6 is probably around 19.3%. Combining this number with those who dropped out of the labor force yields an impact well above 20%, probably around 25%, or one-in-four Georgians adversely affected, instead of just one in ten.

 

Note on Sources: All data came from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, except for the identification of the recessions that came from the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.  

Erik Randolph is Director of Research at the Georgia Center for Opportunity. This article reflects his calculations, analysis and opinion and does not necessarily reflect that of the Georgia Center for Opportunity.

To learn more about what Georgia Center for Opportunity is doing to help get Georgians back to work check out our Hiring Well, Doing Good initiative. 

To Rebuild Trust in Law Enforcement, We Must Reform Civil Asset Forfeiture Laws

To Rebuild Trust in Law Enforcement, We Must Reform Civil Asset Forfeiture Laws

To Rebuild Trust in Law Enforcement, We Must Reform Civil Asset Forfeiture Laws

By Buzz Brockway


In the wake of the tragic deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, and now Rayshard Brooks, issues of racism and questions about use of force by police dominate the news. Understandably, emotions are high as people want answers and change. The Georgia Center for Opportunity has worked diligently over the years on issues of criminal justice reform.  We see this as a key issue in pursuit of our goal of a society where everyone has the opportunity to flourish. We stand with our African-American sisters and brothers as they call for justice.

One key area in need of reform is called civil asset forfeiture. Civil asset forfeiture is a process in which law enforcement officers take assets from persons suspected of involvement in illegal activity without necessarily charging the owners with wrongdoing.  The assets are thought to be either obtained as a result of illegal activity, or used in the commission of a crime. A civil court proceeding takes place to determine if the assets are to be forfeited and the funds used for law enforcement purposes.

As solutions are being offered, it is important to keep in mind the vital role law enforcement play in protecting the vulnerable and seeking justice for victims. Human flourishing and freedom cannot take place in unsafe communities. Therefore, law enforcement can and should be a key part of the solution to issues such as racism and discussions about the proper application of force against those suspected of criminal activity.

While the facts surrounding each of the tragic deaths listed above differ, one common thread moving through each case is lack of trust. Lack of trust that officers will use force responsibly, lack of trust that officers will properly deal with arrest warrants, and lack of trust that prosecutors will prosecute crimes equally, especially crimes committed against the African-American community.  As we consider potential reforms, focusing our efforts on restoring trust between law enforcement and the communities they serve would seem to be efforts that could bear much fruit.

To that end, let me suggest we look at increasing transparency and oversight of Georgia’s civil asset forfeiture laws. The Georgia Center for Opportunity recently completed a study of these laws, how the system works, and made recommendations around increased transparency and accountability. 

 officers investigating a carCivil forfeiture of assets from law enforcement activities has become an important      funding mechanism for many law enforcement agencies as well as multi-jurisdictional task forces crucial to fighting criminal gangs. However, the issue raises concerns about justice, freedom and prosperity.  While a 2015 law made major improvements in civil asset forfeiture reporting requirements, it is not possible to know whether there was a conviction in the case that resulted in the property being forfeited. To restore trust, collecting this information is crucial.

Additionally, understanding the outcome of the case would allow us to determine if Georgia civil asset forfeiture laws violate the 8th Amendment prohibition on excessive fines. The recent Supreme Court decision in Timbs v. Indiana makes it clear that the 8th Amendment applies to the state. As it relates to civil asset forfeiture, is it an “excessive fine” to forfeit a car worth several thousand dollars for a minor drug conviction?  To restore trust in law enforcement, this question must be answered.

Rebuilding trust between law enforcement and the community will take time and many policies and practices must be reviewed and debated.  Increasing transparency and accountability in Georgia’s civil asset forfeiture laws is an important step in the right direction.

 

To learn more about Civil Asset Forefeiture in Georgia click here

CAN THE POLICE REALLY CONFISCATE MY PROPERTY WITHOUT CONVICTING ME OF A CRIME?

Mental Wellness during COVID-19 for Children and Adolescents | HEALTHY @ HOME

Mental Wellness during COVID-19 for Children and Adolescents | HEALTHY @ HOME

Mental Wellness during COVID-19 for Children and Adolescents | HEALTHY @ HOME

Discover how to recognize the mental wellness of the children in your home and helping them adjust to struggling times. Special guest licensed professional counselor, Rebeca Gibbons, shares how our kids now face new obstacles on how to connect and build a healthy relationship. Rebeca’s insight will help provide a healthy perspective on kids, the Hispanic community, and how we can thrive from home.

5 Steps To Mental Wellness | HEALTHY @ HOME

5 Steps To Mental Wellness | HEALTHY @ HOME

5 Steps To Mental Wellness | HEALTHY @ HOME

Licensed Professional Counselor Jacqueline Robinson shares five ways that you can keep your mental health in check. These easy steps will help make sure that you and your loved ones are can care and support each other.

A statement on current events affecting our communities

A statement on current events affecting our communities

A statement on current events affecting our communities

Our hearts are broken by the events of the last few days. We struggle to make little sense of the tragic and unnecessary deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, and the many other stories told and untold.

In tragedy, we are reminded of the value of all humans. That each person deserves the opportunity to flourish. An opportunity that entire generations and communities are prevented from accessing.

We now must face the challenge of who we will be in light of the struggles of those around us. How will we respond to these systemic barriers? How will we address the injustices around us?

As an organization, we stand with the many communities who face these injustices. We are committed to listen, to learn, and most importantly, to act.

Fostering is the best example of civil society in action

Fostering is the best example of civil society in action

Fostering is the best example of civil society in action

Yesterday we received no less than four video calls from different people working for a child in our care. Each reached out to meet a different need in the life of this  child who has been thrust into an un-ideal situation. A child who may feel disconnected, abandoned, and unwanted.

 

The Effort Of Many

For a child in foster care they will experience the generosity, the love, the care, and the effort of many people. A single kid in care could have come into contact with as many as a dozen individuals working for that child’s well-being. This could be a social worker, a receiving care family, foster parents, a lawyer, a judge, a CASA, biological parents, support services, a non-profit care worker, prospective adoptive parents, and even foster care support families.  All of these are people ideally working for the betterment of the kid in care. Plain and simple, foster care is the best example of what it looks like when communities come together to meet a felt need.

Many of these individuals are seen but there are unseen forces all working towards the betterment and support of a kid in care. It is a broad acknowledgment that it takes the entire work of civil society to properly meet the needs of those around us. A unique understanding that while the government can do much to provide safety nets, it is only fully possible by the support of a community of people around it.

Why must so many come around this need for foster care? Because the issue is nuanced. Each child’s story is played out differently. Each child’s needs must be addressed at a human level. Their stories do not always fit on a spreadsheet or plan of action. Instead, the support systems that will lead to their success are best kept in the hands of those able to adapt and care.

Four Organizations Leading To One Goal

There are so many stories and organizations at play to keep the system working the way intended.

Organizations like that of Connection Homes, who provide necessary mentoring and support to children experiencing brokenness.

Or that of Foster Care Alliance who respond to the needs of the many single mom’s dealing with issues keeping them from properly caring for their child. These mothers desire to do well for their children but lack the skills or understanding to do so.

And what about the foster family? Nearly 50 percent of foster parents quit within one  year of taking on the role in the US. That is why organizations like Project 686 are working to support foster care families – giving resources necessary to carry on. 

Then there are groups like Faithbridge Foster Care who meet the needs of the child by connecting local churches to local kids in the foster system. This ensures that the community connection of that child stays intact.

Four very different organizations, working toward one goal…wholeness of the child.

Celebrating Those Who Care

As we close out May and foster care awareness month in the US, we are reminded of the many people who voluntarily reach out to provide a holistic approach of restoring children. Individuals who are compelled purely by love to care for those around them. This often is in stark contrast to the selfish picture painted by some about society. The truth is there are millions willing to ensure that all people are taken care of. It is those who step up who show the true morality of its people and create strong communities.

 We here at the Georgia Center for Opportunity have highlighted groups and individuals that have shown this compassion. Groups that identified a need and responded in kind. When we discuss civil society, these individuals come to mind. They show us what true morality looks like.

Do you have a story of a foster parent you would like to celebrate? If so we want to hear it.