Media Statement: Number of people working hasn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels

Media Statement: Number of people working hasn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels

Erik R - statement - July job numbers

Media Statement: Number of people working hasn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that total non-farm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July. The result was much higher than expected.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take: “Friday’s jobs report is being billed as great news, but peeling back a few layers reveals a worse reality,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “It’s true the number of jobs in the United States is now at pre-pandemic levels. The difference is that the number of people who are actually working hasn’t caught back up. That implies more people are working two or even three jobs to make ends meet in this highly inflationary environment. Meanwhile, wage growth isn’t keeping pace with inflation, putting poor and working class Americans even further behind.”

June CPI exceeded expectations and was the fastest pace for inflation in four decades

June CPI exceeded expectations and was the fastest pace for inflation in four decades

inflation swells

June CPI exceeded expectations and was the fastest pace for inflation in four decades

Key Points

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3
  • June CPI exceeded expectations
  • Fastest pace for inflation in four decades

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that in June the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3, not seasonally adjusted. Year over year, the CPI has gone up 9.1% in the last 12 months. The June CPI exceeded expectations and was the fastest pace for inflation in four decades.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take: “This new inflation reading ranks among the worst monthly inflation rates in U.S. history, and the worst in recent history,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “We have to go back to March 1980 — the last year of the Carter administration — to find a higher monthly inflation rate. The bottom line is that we may not have reached peak inflation, and there’s no telling how long the price level crisis will persist. Meanwhile, the rhetoric from the White House and Congress will do little to rectify the situation. There needs to be new thinking within the Washington Beltway.”

GA unemployment 3%
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%

the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%

UNEMPLOYMENT CASH

the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%

Key Points

  • Total nonfarm payrolls for the U.S. rose by 372,000
  • Unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payrolls for the U.S. rose by 372,000 in June and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. The increase was higher than expected.
The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take: “The job numbers are seen as positive overall, but the real story is at the state level where economically free states are performing so much better than more restrictive states,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “Of the 14 states that have recovered all their jobs lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 12 of them are governed by leaders more friendly to economic freedom. Recent migration data show that businesses and workers are leaving more restrictive states — like California and New York — to migrate to more free states, like Georgia, Texas, Florida, and Tennessee. These states are far better positioned to weather an economic recession as well.”
GA unemployment 3%
May CPI set a new recent record for inflation

May CPI set a new recent record for inflation

calculator and graphs

May CPI set a new recent record for inflation

Key Points

  • May the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set new record for inflation
  • Lack of discussion over the price level, which is the new ‘floor’ for prices in the economy
  • Leaving the price level elevated means we are leaving the economically disadvantaged further behind, exacerbating the economic divide in our nation

New record for inflation

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that in May the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1%, not seasonally adjusted. Year over year, the CPI has gone up 8.6% in the last 12 months. The May CPI exceeded expectations and set a new recent record for inflation.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take: “We now know that the early statements from the Biden Administration and the Federal Reserve that this inflation is transitory was an incorrect assessment. It looks a lot more like it’s becoming embedded into the economy,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “What’s both remarkable and troubling is the lack of discussion over the price level, which is the new ‘floor’ for prices in the economy. The only discussion is about bringing the inflation rate back down. This means that the federal policymakers are willing to leave the price level elevated. Leaving the price level elevated means we are leaving the economically disadvantaged further behind, exacerbating the economic divide in our nation.”

 

America’s Labor Force Problem Goes Beyond Economics

America’s Labor Force Problem Goes Beyond Economics

woman on steps frustrated about work

America’s Labor Force Problem Goes Beyond Economics

Key Points

  • Separation from the workforce is impacting mental, physical and social health of our communities.
  • Some employees are choosing to leave or refuse work to stay ahead on bills.
  • Government safety-net programs must be reconfigured to move people into work for both economic & social well-being.

Originally Posted on Real Clear Politics

 

One legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic could be the devastation it brought to the American worker by disconnecting millions from the workforce.

New research estimates that 3 million workers plan to remain permanently sidelined over concerns of physical illness or physical impairment due to COVID-19.

The research team named this phenomenon “Long Social Distancing” and found that more than 13% of Americans who worked in 2019 plan to continue social distancing after the pandemic ends. An additional 46% will engage in limited forms of social distancing.

The study estimates the depressed labor force participation from Long Social Distancing will dampen Gross Domestic Product by 1.4%. But the impact on individuals and their families will be far worse.

Separation from the labor force obviously means less income and financial security for the individual’s future. But there are other costs from nonwork that extend beyond the financial disadvantages, including long-term mental, physical, and social health impacts for workers, their children, their families, and their communities.

Simply put, our labor force situation today is a social, mental, and community crisis in the making. That’s particularly true for the poor and working class.

Kevin discovered that work is more than a paycheck.

Kevin discovered that work is more than a paycheck.

During the pandemic, the so-called “laptop class” of professional workers fared fairly well. They were able to maintain social distance from others while still working to earn income. Many of these workers found that remote jobs allowed them to create a healthier work-life balance, so they abandoned their former desk jobs in favor of a more flexible lifestyle.

In stark contrast, working-class adults who couldn’t perform their jobs from home have been hit hard. Those who continued to work were often placed at a higher risk of COVID-19 exposure. Others suffered more because their employers shut down, resulting in a devastating loss of income. Many small business owners suffered income loss and in some cases were forced to close their businesses permanently.

According to the Long Social Distancing study, the majority of Americans who don’t plan to return to work have a high school education or less (17.6%). Unemployment tended to decrease based on both education level and income, with the highest number of labor non-participation among those who previously earned $10,000 to $20,000 per year. Nonwork was highest among females aged 50-64 (17.5%), followed by male respondents of the same age group (12.9%).

It follows, then, that the most significant impact labor non-participation will have on America lies among lower-income communities — many of whom were likely already struggling to make ends meet.

Federal stimulus programs have been important to these individuals, helping them weather the combined storm of the virus and government-imposed lockdowns and shutdowns. Although these government programs sustained many people throughout the crisis, they also created major problems as we emerge from the worst of the pandemic.

Some unemployed people found that they were better off leaving their jobs and receiving government assistance instead. In many cases, unemployment benefits paid better than the jobs they’d previously occupied. This aggravated pre-existing issues with labor force non-participation, helping to fuel inflation as work stoppages led to disruptions in the supply-chain flow of goods and services.

Worsening the problem even more, many Americans experienced so-called “benefit cliffs” where their government support, such as food stamps, fell off in response to an increase in income. In some cases, families lost government benefits after a comparatively small pay raise. This creates additional disincentives for work.

So, what’s the path forward? In order to get unemployed adults back to work, we’ll need a change in perspective. Work must be regarded as something worthwhile in itself beyond a weekly or biweekly paycheck, because it is. A steady job gives each worker a sense of purpose, provides a stable life to their families, and helps maintain mental health.

Nonwork has a direct impact on children not only in the present, but as research shows it can impact their future, too. It creates perpetuating cycles of dependency that lead to instability for the children in these homes. This creates a systemic crisis in marginalized communities. If our goal is truly to overcome generational poverty, creating a culture that uplifts and prizes work is essential.

It’s essential to address safety-net programs as part of the solution. Programs that help in the immediate aftermath of job loss are not enough. In addition to meeting immediate needs — such as unemployment assistance and food — unemployed individuals need support and encouragement to know that work is beneficial to our mental and social health. 

And importantly, safety net programs cannot create disincentives from earning more money and getting ahead in society. Government programs need to be reconfigured so they no longer interfere with the upward economic mobility of individuals and their families. They need to consider the overall well-being of the recipients and their families over the long-term, not just the short-term.

Our ultimate goal should be to help those sidelined by the pandemic reconnect to work — not only for their economic health, but for their mental and emotional wellbeing.