Key Points

A recent headline from the satirical news website The Babylon Bee read “California Achieves World’s First Crime Rate Of Zero After Legalizing All Crime.” That piece reads in part:

“This is a great moment for our state,” Governor Gavin Newsom said. “No other state in the nation’s history has successfully brought the crime rate down to nothing. California is once again leading the way! Now, please, for the safety of your loved ones, don’t venture out of your homes at night. Or at least carry an air horn. Whatever. I don’t care.”

Analysts point to the state’s legalization of all criminal acts as the catalyst for reaching a zero crime rate. “It was a bold but revolutionary move,” said Professor Kyle Ray of the California Crime Institute. “California has effectively eliminated all crime from existence simply by making every unlawful or despicable act completely acceptable. Murder, assault, robbery — these are yesterday’s terms. Californians are now truly free to express themselves however they choose. Zero crime!”

Unfortunately, sometimes life comes a little too close to imitating art. In California’s case, de-carceration, de-prosecution, and de-policing has led to a toxic mix that has eroded public safety in the Golden State.

While crime began to crest in many states in 2022, the 2022 Crime in California report shows:

• State-wide violent crime was up 6.1% compared to 2021.
• Property crime was up 6.2% over the same time period.
• The homicide rate increased 23.9% in the five years since 2017. 
• By contrast, the rates for overall arrests and homicide arrests declined in 2022.

San Francisco and Oakland: California Beacons of Opportunity Turned Cautionary Tales 

Two Bay-area cities—San Francisco and Oakland—exemplify California’s public safety decline.

In San Francisco, a destination once regarded as the booming tech hub of the world, rising violent crime, homelessness, and open-air drug markets have led to massive exits from businesses large and small. In fact, the number of fleeing businesses is so large that several media and advocacy groups have developed databases of all the companies leaving. 

This trend has severely damaged the city’s reputation. A recent Gallup poll found that only 52% of Americans thought San Francisco was safe—down from 70% in 2006. It has also opened San Francisco up to the negative impact that crime has on economic opportunity. As multiple studies have found, violent crime robs communities of job growth and economic mobility—an outcome that tends to hurt disadvantaged communities and low-income residents the most. 

Across the Golden Gate Bridge in Oakland, CA, residents have become so tired of unabated violent crime that the local NAACP chapter joined Black religious leaders in calling on city leadership to declare a “state of emergency” over the impact of surging violence on minority communities. They specifically called out “failed leadership, including the movement to defund the police,” as well as the failure to “prosecute people who murder and commit life threatening serious crimes.” 

Bad ideas in Oakland have contributed to a cycle of violence that has trapped low-income residents in places they feel unsafe. The NAACP chapter there is demanding accountability, both of the offenders and of the politicians who placate them. In the first six months of 2023, crime is up 26% overall in Oakland,  according to the Oakland Police Department.

How Did California Get Into This Crime Crisis?

How did California get here? A brew of bad policies at the state and local levels over the last decade appears to have finally come to a head. 

• Beginning in 2011, in response to a lawsuit about prison crowding, the California legislature passed AB 109, “Public Safety Realignment,” which made most property and drug offenses ineligible for state prison sentences and eliminated state parole supervision in most instances in favor of less intensive county options.

   

•  Then, in 2014, voters approved Proposition 47,  “The Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act,” which made all types of theft under $950 and some drug crimes misdemeanors.

   

• In 2016, voters approved Proposition 57, “The Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act of 2016” which created a system of earned early release that applied to many inmates, including those convicted of rape, gang, and gun crimes.

   

• Finally, in 2020, in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19 in state prisons, Governor Newsom released more than 10,000 inmates back onto the street, many of whom had violent and serious convictions.

At the local level, both San Francisco and Oakland reduced or repurposed portions of their police department budgets amid calls to “defund” the police. In 2020, San Francisco diverted $120 million from the police department and sheriff’s office budgets over the next two years. In Oakland, the city council repurposed $17 million away from the police department in favor of doubling the budget of a civilian crime prevention entity.

And then there are the elected District Attorneys. In San Francisco, progressive defense attorney Chesa Boudin was elected in 2020, along with a wave of other progressive prosecutors around the country with large financial backing. In addition to not prosecuting a host of lower-level crimes, Boudin quickly announced he would not pursue enhanced penalties for gang members. Crime rose dramatically, and Boudin was recalled in 2022.

Shortly after the Boudin recall, Oakland elected district attorney Pamela Price, who promised to discontinue use of those same enhanced penalties and favor probation over incarceration. She is currently facing the potential of her own recall effort.

“MY SON IS DEFINITELY WORTH THAT FIGHT”

The tragic story of Christian Gwynn who was fatally shot as a result of violence is a wake-up call to the need for change in policies that will reduce urban violence.

“MY SON IS DEFINITELY WORTH THAT FIGHT”

Rising Crime Doesn’t Have to be the New Norm in California—or Anywhere Else

Now there is mounting fear of even greater political blowback. But political implications aside, it doesn’t have to be this way.

We recently published our first analysis of a city and state’s public safety infrastructure. While this initial report looks at Atlanta, GA, the implications extend to cities and states across the country. Blue and red cities in blue and red states have been innovating and implementing best practices to reduce crime and violence, and these steps are helping several communities restore safety, hope, and opportunity. 

For more on how cities and states can get back on the right track, check out the report and recommendations here.

About The Author

Josh Crawford

Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives

Josh Crawford is a native of Massachusetts. He went to Penn State for his undergraduate degree and then finished law school in Boston. After a brief stint in Sacramento, California, working in the county district attorney’s office, Josh moved to Kentucky to help start the Pegasus Institute, a nonpartisan organization designed to promote opportunity. In addition to serving as executive director of the organization, Josh had a special focus on criminal justice policy.

“By focusing on public safety and order, we can restore hope and opportunity to rural communities.”

Key Points

The Georgia Center for Opportunity is announcing a new report on violent crime in Atlanta, which highlights the city’s recent spike in violent crime and how to mitigate it. 

Josh Crawford, Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives at GCO, developed the report, along with recommendations for reducing violent crime in Atlanta.  

“The brief and its recommendations are designed to create a base level of what order and public safety should look like across the board,” Crawford says. “It’s imperative that we have an intentional conversation about the state of crime in Atlanta now, and how we can improve that for the future.” 

According to Crawford’s report, criminal activity reduces opportunities in both small communities and metropolitan areas, destabilizing them in the process. In addition, crime devalues both businesses and individuals in those areas. 

Although there have been positive steps toward improvement in Atlanta during recent years, there’s still work to be done. Some of those measures still need to be implemented, while other solutions need to be developed. In his report, Crawford shares a number of recommendations.

A Dramatic Spike in Violent Crime

Since 2018, the rates of violent crime and homicide have increased dramatically in Atlanta. The largest spike occurred during 2020 and was a reflection of the broader trend nationwide. Between 2009 and 2017, homicides in Atlanta tended to average 90 or fewer, with a few exceptions in 2008 (105) and 2016 (113).

Since the rise in violent crime began in 2018, Atlanta has not experienced a year with fewer than 80 murders, with an additional 217 people murdered over the previous decade’s average. 

On top of the rising crime, many convicted violent criminals in Georgia aren’t serving out their full sentences. As a result, they’re being released back onto the streets long before their sentences end. For example: 

• Attempted murder convicts released during 2022 had only served 7.91 years of their sentences on average, or 35.78% of the time they were meant to serve
• That same year, aggravated assault convicts had only served 4.03 years on average, or 29.57% of their sentences
• Felons convicted of unlawful possession of a firearm had served only 2.83 years on average, or 27.29% of their full sentences

To make matters worse, a dip in law enforcement personnel has coincided with the rise in crime.

Pinpointing High-Crime Areas in and Around Atlanta

Crawford says that the majority of crime tends to be concentrated in small, dense areas controlled by violent gangs. 

“We have to focus our efforts on gang-controlled areas across the city,” he says. “By doing that, we’ll start to see significant gains. It’s a more effective approach than trying to broaden our reach.” 

Once law enforcement has pinpointed high-crime areas, Crawford says they can then implement a series of strategies he calls “focused deterrence.” In other words, incidences of violent crime–such as homicides and shootings–would theoretically be reduced. This result is possible through concentrated social service and law enforcement activities in these gang-controlled sectors. 

Using the combined, competent approach of law enforcement and social services would enable individual criminals to undergo rehabilitation. These measures would emphasize getting to the root of the problem, and helping each person to make the necessary changes to his or her life. 

“We believe it’s not possible to truly help reduce crime without directly addressing the person or problem where it originates,” Crawford says. 

 “It’s imperative that we have an intentional conversation about the state of crime in Atlanta now, and how we can improve that for the future.”

– Josh Crawford, Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives at GCO

“It’s imperative that we have an intentional conversation about the state of crime in Atlanta now, and how we can improve that for the future.”

– Josh Crawford, Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives at GCO

More Recommendations for Improving Community Safety 

In addition to narrowing the focus to areas of high gang activity and addressing individuals wherever possible, there are also things that can be done to improve community safety in those areas. Here are some of the steps Crawford recommends. 

• Address disrepair in Atlanta’s communities by expanding cleanup efforts, tearing down or renovating abandoned buildings, and installing adequate street lighting
• Build trust between community residents and law enforcement and social services, particularly through protecting the rights of victims
• Remove egregious offenders from communities by implementing gang-enhancement provisions such as SB44 (2023) that keep these individuals incarcerated
• Improve and require pre-entry cognitive behavioral therapy services for all juvenile offenders, no matter how non-violent their offenses
• Reevaluate reentry programs through an external third party, examining the impact on revocation, rearrest, and reconviction 

Through this strategic, multi-layered approach, Crawford estimates that it would be possible to reduce Atlanta’s caseload to no more than six homicides each year.