Joshua Crawford in The Baltimore Sun
Originally published July 3, 2025

By the mid-1990s, Boston was in a constant state of tumult. While homicides had been high since 1980, the six years from 1989-1995 would prove to be among the city’s deadliest, with 710 murders — 75 more than the preceding six-year period. Racial strife and police abuses riled the city after the 1989 murder of Carol Stuart — a pregnant white woman from the suburbs — whose murder was blamed on a young Black man by her husband, the actual killer.

For the foreseeable future, Boston was to be a place of violence, chaos and disorder. Only, that’s not what happened. Thanks to a team composed of the Boston Police Department, researchers from Harvard University and local religious leaders, an innovative approach called “Operation Ceasefire” dramatically reduced violent crime in the city. Over the next four years, youth homicides decreased in the city by 63%, and Boston has become one of the safest large cities in the country.

Governments and the media hailed that initial decrease as the “Boston Miracle.” Nearly three decades later, similar reductions in Baltimore deserve the same praise — if not more.

Baltimore has struggled with crime, especially drugs and violent crime, in both reality and in the imaginations of the American people for decades. Routinely in the top of the “most violent” or “least safe” city rankings, Baltimore has only had fewer than 200 murders three times since 1970.

In line with national trends, murder totals began increasing in the 1960s and then decreasing in the 1990s through 2014. Then, also in line with national trends, murder rose sharply in 2015 and remained elevated. Baltimore did not have fewer than 300 murders again until 2023, when a mix of best practices produced one of the most impressive declines in deadly violence in the nation’s recent history. Murder declined nearly 22% in 2023, and then another almost 23% in 2024 — erasing all of the post-2014 increases. Through May 1, 2025, homicides were down another 31%, putting Baltimore on pace for its fourth sub-200 murder year since 1970, and the city’s lowest total since the mid-1960s.

What happened?

Read the full article here.

Joshua Crawford is the Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives at the Georgia Center for Opportunity and the author of “Kids and Community Violence: Costs, Consequences, and Solutions” in the edited volume Doing Right by Kids.

Joshua Crawford on the Conway and Larson Show
Originally aired May 15, 2025

In this radio interview, host Leland Conway and Joshua Crawford discuss the implications of prisoner releases in California. They cover:

• Impact on recidivism rates and whether releases have led to increased reoffending.
• The broader effects of the releases on community safety.
• Lessons that can be learned from California’s approach when it comes to crafting effective criminal justice policies.

By Joshua Crawford
Originally published on March 21, 2025, in City Journal

In Philadelphia last month, law enforcement announced the indictment of 12 teenagers for a series of violent crimes spanning two years. Calling themselves “The Senders,” the groups were charged with murder, 26 shootings, and multiple carjackings. One of the alleged shooters, now 19, is charged with nine shootings totaling 16 victims. Another was just 14 at the time of his alleged crime—a stark reminder of how gangs can entrench even the youngest members.

These alleged offenders’ ages may be shocking, but young people make up a much larger share of gangs than many realize. Survey data from the 1990s found that around 5 percent of young people were in gangs; the average age of joining a gang was 13. Gang-affiliated youth are far likelier to engage in serious crime than other at-risk youth or children with delinquent but non-gang-affiliated friends.

Governments have launched a wide array of prevention and intervention efforts to steer kids away from gang life. These programs try to dissuade youth from joining gangs or encourage them to leave. But the initiatives have had mixed results, and the ones that do work well often have limited access to at-risk kids.

To address the root problem, policymakers must understand why kids join gangs.

Read the full article here.

By Randy Hicks and Eric Cochling
Originally published on February 19, 2025, in Governing

Most state legislatures are in session right now. And while AI, education, housing and taxes will dominate headlines, policymakers should not overlook the importance of welfare reform. In particular, they should look for ways to help recipients move out of poverty so they can thrive on their own.

Accomplishing that would go a long way toward getting the costs of welfare under control. Social services programs, including Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, are a primary driver of expanding state budgets. Welfare accounts for 45 percent of states’ direct general expenditures, the largest share of direct state spending.

In addition to the costs, the U.S. safety net system has grown increasingly complex. What started as just a handful of initiatives has evolved into a system of more than 80 programs, each with different goals, eligibility requirements and rules — a maze that is incredibly difficult for a policy wonk to navigate, let alone a recipient.

Costs and complexity are one thing if the system is truly helping people. But welfare does not well serve the low-income and marginalized communities it’s intended to help. While the safety net supports individuals so they can survive on a basic level, it does not move them out of poverty so they can flourish, thrive and reach their true potential. States should consider how to design their safety net systems so that they actually help Americans become permanently self-sufficient — and gain hope and dignity along the way.

Read the full article here.

By Joshua Crawford
Originally published on January 11, 2025, in The Hill

The Washington, D.C. attorney general has sued Amazon, alleging the e-commerce giant intentionally slowed service to two low-income, majority-Black neighborhoods in the district. Beginning in 2022, residents of ZIP codes 20019 and 20020 would receive packages much more slowly than the typical two-day shipping to which Prime customers are accustomed.

Amazon does not deny the delays. Instead, Amazon argues the changes were not based on prejudice or race-based decision-making, but rather a result of increased carjackings, homicides and other violent crimes in those neighborhoods.

Tragically, in some ways, both parties are correct. Black Americans have long bore the brunt of America’s violent crime problem, and things have gotten worse in recent years, especially in cities run by progressives.

From 2010 to 2020, the total share of U.S. violent crime victims who were Black increased by 3.2 percent to 32.7 percent of all crime victims. Over this same period, the share of Black Americans in the total U.S. population decreased from 13 percent to 12 percent.

While America was becoming more violent, it was Black Americans who felt the increase most acutely. Unfortunately, this isn’t new.

Read the full article here.