2024 Election Results Confirm Public Safety Is a Priority for Americans

2024 Election Results Confirm Public Safety Is a Priority for Americans

Voting preferences in the 2024 election confirm that better public safety is a priority for Americans.

2024 Election Results Confirm Public Safety Is a Priority for Americans

Key Points

  • In state and local elections, voters across the political spectrum chose candidates who shared their priority for greater public safety and order.
  • The 2024 election results underscore an important pillar of healthy communities: Safety is the first step to stability and prosperity.

In state and local elections, voters across the political spectrum chose candidates who shared their priority for greater public safety and order.

While the 2024 election represents different things to different voters, it may well be remembered, as my friend Rafael Mangual of the Manhattan Institute put it, as the “anti-crime election.” 

In recent years, there has been a divide between elected officials and the public when it comes to crime. As more local leaders have taken relaxed stances to public safety, voters have become increasingly concerned. 

With the 2024 election, this crime divide between voters and politicians has narrowed because voters changed their politicians. As Mangual lays out in a great new piece in City Journal, voters all over the country rejected soft-on-crime approaches to public safety, including in progressive enclaves like Oakland, CA.

Search Interest by State in Crime

In the 2024 Election, crime was consistently a top issue being searched across all 50 states.

Source: Associated Press, “What election issues are Americans searching on Google?”, October 2024

From Georgia to California, voters reject the “progressive prosecutor” movement

Voters’ frustration with soft-on-crime prosecutors began in 2022 with the recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin and continued with the defeat of Portland-area District Attorney Mike Schmidt earlier this year. 

For residents favoring law and order and a return to normalcy, another boost came on election day. The biggest news of the day was the defeat of Los Angeles District Attorney George Gasćon.

Gasćon had run on a progressive platform and quickly made good on his promises. He declined to pursue the death penalty in capital murder cases, instructed his office to avoid seeking lengthy sentences in gang and gun cases through available sentence enhancements, and diverted more and more cases from prosecution. Gasćon lost his re-election bid by a margin of 60-40.

Closer to home, in Athens, GA, progressive District Attorney Deborah Gonzalez lost to challenger Kalki Yalamanchili by almost the same margin. In Tampa, FL, incumbent Andrew Warren, suspended by Gov. Ron DeSantis over his non-prosecution policies, lost to a law-and-order challenger. In total, of the 25 progressive prosecutors on the ballot this election, 12 either lost or were recalled.

Voters favor local candidates and ballot measures focused on stronger public safety 

Voters also showed a pro-public safety bent on election day in their support of ballot initiatives. In California, voters approved an initiative to enhance penalties for repeat drug and theft offenses. Colorado residents overwhelmingly passed a ballot initiative that increases consequences for violent offenses. 

Voters in San Francisco elected a mayor who plans to get tough on the drug dealing plaguing the city. Oakland residents also recalled their mayor who, through a mix of bad policy and benign neglect, had let violent crime spiral.

Americans repeatedly told pollsters ahead of the 2024 election that they were concerned about crime. On November 5, they voted like it. The 2024 election may well be remembered for voters demanding better and reminding elected officials of what every leader should remember—that the first step to a prosperous community is a safe one. 

Point: When Violent Crime Was at Its Worst, Congressional Action Helped – DC Journal – InsideSources

Point: When Violent Crime Was at Its Worst, Congressional Action Helped – DC Journal – InsideSources

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Point: When Violent Crime Was at Its Worst, Congressional Action Helped – DC Journal – InsideSources

For an alternate viewpoint, see “Counterpoint: The 1994 Crime Bill’s Legacy — Thirty Years of Failure.”

By the early 1990s, the United States had experienced dramatic and unprecedented surges in crime, with the violent crime rate up 470 percent from 1961 and the murder rate up 92 percent from that year.

Life in American cities was more dangerous than ever, and punishment was not fitting the crimes. While the median sentence for murder was 15 years, the median time served was only 5.5 years. The median sentence for rape was five years, but the median time served was a paltry three. Overall, violent criminals served, on average, 37 percent (2 years, 11 months) of their sentenced time. Forty-four percent of Americans said there was an area near where they lived that they would be afraid to walk alone at night.

In response to widespread pressure from law enforcement and residents, on September 13, 1994, former president Bill Clinton signed the bipartisan Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994. Commonly referred to as the 1994 Crime Bill, this omnibus package was the most serious federal effort to reduce violent crime in U.S. history. The bill injected billions into hiring police, created a grant program to encourage state adoption of Truth in Sentencing laws, added prison capacity, and criminalized gang membership — among other provisions.

To read the full article click here.

Why Focus More on Public Safety and Order? Kids Need More of It.

Why Focus More on Public Safety and Order? Kids Need More of It.

A new book, Doing Right by Kids, explores the impact that community violence has on children's opportunities for economic and social mobility.

Why Focus More on Public Safety and Order? Kids Need More of It.

Key Points

  • Community violence is one of the factors examined in a new book called “Doing Right by Kids,” which examines how we can improve relationships, institutions, and community environments to expand upward mobility among kids.
  • The book features a chapter from GCO’s director of criminal justice initatives, Josh Crawford, explaining how community violence affects kids and their futures. See an excerpt below.
  • “Doing Right by Kids” is a thoughtful, accessible guide to improving opportunities in the communities where children’s lives are formed. Get a copy of the book here.

Public safety and community violence are more critical now than they have ever been. With increasing societal tensions and the lingering effects of the pandemic, Americans—including Georgians—want to feel secure in their neighborhoods. The path to achieving this sense of security is clear: fund the police, hold violent offenders accountable, and ensure a fair and just system that doesn’t allow fear and lawlessness to prevail.

At the Georgia Center for Opportunity, we believe that addressing public safety and community violence is essential for creating thriving communities. This belief is echoed in a new book, “Doing Right by Kids: Leveraging Social Capital and Innovation to Increase Opportunity,” which features a pivotal chapter by our very own Josh Crawford, GCO’s director of criminal justice initiatives.

In his chapter, Josh explores the significant impact of public safety and community violence on children and provides insightful solutions for rebuilding social capital and fostering safe environments.

Below is an excerpt from Josh’s chapter, “Kids and Community Violence: Costs, Consequences, and Solutions.” You can also read the full chapter here.

A new book, Doing Right by Kids, offers new ideas for improving upward mobility for disadvantaged kids.

When it comes to improving opportunities for kids, we need better ideas. Now they’re here. 

A new book, Doing Right by Kids, offers new ideas for improving upward mobility for disadvantaged kids in America.

When it comes to improving opportunities for kids, we need better ideas. Now they’re here.
Get your copy of “Doing Right by Kids” today. 

“Doing Right by Kids” Excerpt: Why Focus More on Public Safety and Public Order? 

Walk into any suburban coffee shop in a low-crime neighborhood and look around. You’ll quickly notice the tables are populated by tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of laptops and smartphones, and designer purses sit on the floor. These items often go unguarded when patrons pick up their coffees or go to the bathroom. It’s the normal course of business in these establishments. No one fears these items will be stolen. There is an unconscious presupposition of public safety. This is what happens when the public order is upheld.

When this presumption of safety falls apart, however, people change their behavior. Following the expansion of remote work during the coronavirus pandemic, workers in New York City cited violence and crime as the primary reasons for not wanting to return to the office. Research on crime avoidance also finds that households will pay a premium to avoid violence. One 2011 study of families in the San Francisco Bay Area in California found that the average household was willing to pay $472 per year to avoid a 10 percent increase in violent crime.

The United States has had varying degrees of success in public safety over the years. In the modern context, violent crime peaked in the United States in 1991 with 758.1 instances per 100,000 people, an increase of more than 470 percent from 1960. Homicide, the most destructive and permanent of the violent offenses, peaked in 1980 at a rate of 10.2 per 100,000 residents and in 1991 with a rate of 9.8 per 100,000 residents; in 1960 the murder rate had been almost half that at 5.1 per 100,000 residents.

After 1991, as a result of a number of changes in policing, sentencing, and a wide array of other hotly debated factors, homicide and violent crime declined significantly in cities across the country (Figures 1 and 2). This decline continued until 2014, when the homicide rate reached 4.4 per 100,000 and the violent-crime rate was 379.4 per 100,000. While this was a huge improvement from the highs of 1991, the violent-crime rate in 2014 was still more than double the rate in 1960. It has trended in the wrong direction in recent years, with a jump in homicides in 2020.

Figure 1. US Homicide Rate per 100,000, 1960-2022

As of 2014, the violent crime rate was still more than double the rate in 1960.

Figure 2. US Violent-Crime Rate per 100,000, 1960-2022

US Violent Crime Rate Trend per 100,000 from 1960-2022.

While the long-run decline in crime is important, it is ultimately too reassuring because no one lives in “the nation.” Aggregated data erase important variations from state to state, city to city, and neighborhood to neighborhood. People live in communities, not the whole nation.

Despite these declines in violent crime often being disproportionately experienced in disadvantaged neighborhoods, violence continues to concentrate at the sub-city level. One study of gun violence in Boston, for example, found that these crimes were concentrated in less than five percent of one-block street segments and intersections. The “law of crime concentration” generally states that in large cities, about 50 percent of crime occurs in about five percent of street segments. Crime is even more concentrated in smaller cities, where, on average, between two and four percent of street segments are responsible for 50 percent of violence. These micro-communities lack the minimum levels of safety and order that are precursors for human flourishing, and the effects of their violence propagate beyond these few hot zones.

Philosopher and political theorist James Burnham observed:

Human beings must have at least a minimum security in life and property, must be able to move through the streets and between the cities, must accept certain common rules in their mutual intercourse, or civilization does not exist. If this necessary order is subverted, the civilization is destroyed, whether the subversion takes place from the best or worst of motives, whether or not it is in some supposedly moral sense justified, whether it is carried out by saints or devils. At some point the guardians of a civilization must be prepared to draw the line.

For far too many children, this kind of order has been inconsistent at best and nonexistent at worst. For children in these neighborhoods, violence is pervasive and affects them both directly and indirectly. Those directly affected are the youth that join criminal street gangs and become perpetrators, as well as those who are either victimized themselves or kin to victims. Those indirectly affected are those who neither become perpetrators nor victims but who contend with the persistent fear, stress, and isolation that comes with growing up in a community with high rates of violence.

Bridging the gap for America’s kids

Overall, “Doing Right By Kids” explores the truth that, while material hardship among American children is at an all-time low, upward mobility is still difficult for children in poor households and neighborhoods. Despite reduced hardship, children born to disadvantaged parents are still likely to grow up disadvantaged due to counterproductive policies within our safety net. 

The belief that increased financial support alone will advance poor children is inadequate. While progressive strategies have fallen short, conservative skepticism towards government intervention has also neglected the needs of these children.

Truly supporting America’s kids requires focusing on the building blocks of healthy and fulfilling lives—from neighborhood environments to family life to educational opportunities. “Doing Right By Kids” offers innovative proposals to rebuild social capital by strengthening relationships and institutions for children and adolescents, advocating for experimental approaches to identify effective, scalable policies.

For policymakers, community leaders, parents, and concerned citizens, “Doing Right by Kids” is a thoughtful, accessible guide to learning more about what kids really need from us and our society in order to thrive.

Go here to get a copy and to share the book with neighbors and colleagues. 

Point: When Violent Crime Was at Its Worst, Congressional Action Helped – DC Journal – InsideSources

“DOING RIGHT BY KIDS” BOOK EVENT TOMORROW

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“DOING RIGHT BY KIDS” BOOK EVENT TOMORROW

One of my colleagues Josh Crawford, contributed to a book titled “Doing Right by Kids: Leveraging Social Capital and Innovation to Increase Opportunity.

The book will be released next week, but tomorrow the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) will host what they’re calling a book event tomorrow.

AEI describes the event:

Material hardship among American children has never been lower. Yet children born to the most disadvantaged parents today are just as likely as they were in the past to become the most disadvantaged adults when they grow up.

In a new edited volume, Doing Right Kids: Leveraging Social Capital and Innovation to Increase Opportunity, leading scholars diagnose problems of unequal opportunity and describe how conservative policy can promote the American Dream by strengthening the relationships of children and adolescents and the institutions they are connected to.

 

Learn more: Vist the Peach Pundit

Point: When Violent Crime Was at Its Worst, Congressional Action Helped – DC Journal – InsideSources

San Francisco Should Try Punishing Criminals, Not Businesses

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San Francisco Should Try Punishing Criminals, Not Businesses

Josh Crawford, Director of Criminal Justice Initiatives at Georgia Center for Opportunity, recently appeared on Ave Maria in the Afternoon to discuss one of the nation’s most challenging public-safety environments: San Francisco’s Tenderloin District. Crawford shared insights into the newly implemented city ordinance that mandates nightly business closures in the district—a policy that, while well-intentioned, fails to address the root problems of crime and public safety. Instead, the ordinance further hampers economic opportunities for local businesses and residents.

Tune in to hear Crawford’s thoughts on the real solutions needed to bring lasting change to the Tenderloin District and improve both safety and economic opportunity.

 

Listen to the full interview.