Media Statement: Assessing the GDP numbers and what it means

by Corey Burres | Jul 28, 2022

Media Statement: Assessing the GDP numbers and what it means

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that in the second quarter of 2022, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.9%. That marks two consecutive quarters of negative growth, a barometer of economic health that economists typically use to define a recession.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take:
“It’s now official. We’re having stagflation.

There has never been a time when the Business Cycle Dating Committee did not declare a recession when real GDP declined for two consecutive quarters since the availability of quarterly GDP data,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “In fact, the opposite is true. There have been two times, since the availability of the data, without two consecutive real GDP declines when the Committee declared them to be recessions. This happened with their declared 1960 and 2001 recessions. Who knows if and when the NBER Committee will declare whether we’re already in a recession, and for how long. But if it doesn’t declare so despite the real GDP data, it would be unprecedented and require a good explanation. In the meantime, GDP gives perhaps the broadest measure of economic activity, giving a strong signal that we’re in a recession until such time economists work out their various methodologies to affirm or deny.”

Georgia non-adjusted unemployment numbers increase as economy dips into possible recession

by Corey Burres | Jul 28, 2022

Georgia non-adjusted unemployment numbers increase as economy dips into possible recession

A week after reporting Georgia’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit an all-time low, new numbers show the state’s unemployment rate increased.

Last week, officials said Georgia’s preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2022 was 2.9%, below the national rate of 3.6%. The state’s rate decreased from 5.4% in June 2021…

“There has never been a time when the Business Cycle Dating Committee did not declare a recession when real GDP declined for two consecutive quarters since the availability of quarterly GDP data,” Erik Randolph, director of research for the Georgia Center for Opportunity (GCO), said in a statement. “In fact, the opposite is true. There have been two times, since the availability of the data, without two consecutive real GDP declines when the Committee declared them to be recessions. This happened with their declared 1960 and 2001 recessions.

“Who knows if and when the NBER Committee will declare whether we’re already in a recession, and for how long,” Randolph added. “But if it doesn’t declare so despite the real GDP data, it would be unprecedented and require a good explanation. In the meantime, GDP gives perhaps the broadest measure of economic activity, giving a strong signal that we’re in a recession until such time economists work out their various methodologies to affirm or deny.”

Read the full article here

Biden denies recession after GDP decline, but economists say otherwise

by Corey Burres | Jul 28, 2022

Biden denies recession after GDP decline, but economists say otherwise

The U.S. economy has shrunk for six consecutive months, according to federal data released Thursday. which led many economists to declare a recession. But the Biden administration is pushing back, arguing the U.S. is not in a recession after all…

“There has never been a time when the Business Cycle Dating Committee did not declare a recession when real GDP declined for two consecutive quarters since the availability of quarterly GDP data,” said Erik Randolph, the Georgia Center for Opportunity’s director of research. “In fact, the opposite is true. There have been two times, since the availability of the data, without two consecutive real GDP declines when the Committee declared them to be recessions. This happened with their declared 1960 and 2001 recessions.”

Randolph said not declaring a recession this time would be “unprecedented.”

“Who knows if and when the NBER Committee will declare whether we’re already in a recession, and for how long,” he added. “But if it doesn’t declare so despite the real GDP data, it would be unprecedented and require a good explanation. In the meantime, GDP gives perhaps the broadest measure of economic activity, giving a strong signal that we’re in a recession until such time economists work out their various methodologies to affirm or deny.”

Read the full article here

Amid Recession Fears, Economically Free States Continue to Outperform

by Corey Burres | Jul 27, 2022

Amid Recession Fears, Economically Free States Continue to Outperform

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently responded to questions about California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ads airing in Florida, “It’s almost hard to drive people out of a place like California given all their natural advantages, and yet they are finding a way to do it.” He noted that California is hemorrhaging its population because of bad progressive economic policies so that they could be more free

Florida ranks third in the nation for economic freedom, according to the Fraser Institute. And California ranks second to last…

Read the full article here

Don’t miss this line-up of speakers at our family Breakthrough event

by David Bass | Jul 27, 2022

Don’t miss this line-up of speakers at our family Breakthrough event

Key Points

Event is Thursday, August 25 from 10:30am to 12:30pm
Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia
Dive into the Attitudes, Behaviors, and Choices (ABCs) of individuals and families

Our upcoming event focused on family and relational health features a line-up of speakers you’ll definitely want to come out to hear.

As a reminder, the family Breakthrough event sponsored by the Georgia Center for Opportunity is on Thursday, August 25, from 10:30am to 12:30pm at Sonesta Gwinnett Place Atlanta in Duluth, Georgia.

At the event, we will do a deep dive into the Attitudes, Behaviors, and Choices (ABCs) of individuals and families and how those relate to relational and, more broadly, community health. We want you there!

Here are our featured speakers:

Kristen Hypolite, COO of Every Woman Works

Kristen is an engineer by trade and utilizes her talents in helping the women of EWW help reengineer who they are.

Dr. Natalie Looney, Principal of Summerour Middle School

Natalie has served as head of Summerour Middle School since 2019 but has worked in public education for over 20 years. She has been married for 23 years and has two wonderful children.

Michael Doyne, Parent Instructional Coordinator at Lilburn Middle School

Michael has worked as the Parent Instructional Coordinator at Lilburn Middle School for 13 years. He speaks English and Spanish, and he enjoys travel and hanging out with his friends and family.

Ian Rowe, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

At AIE, Ian focuses on education and upward mobility, family formation, and adoption. Ian is also the co-founder of Vertex Partnership Academies, a new network of character-based International Baccalaureate high schools opening in the Bronx in 2022; the chairman of the board of Spence-Chapin, a nonprofit adoption services organization; and the cofounder of the National Summer School Initiative. He concurrently serves as a senior visiting fellow at the Woodson Center and a writer for the 1776 Unites Campaign.