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Biden denies recession after GDP decline, but economists say otherwise

The U.S. economy has shrunk for six consecutive months, according to federal data released Thursday. which led many economists to declare a recession. But the Biden administration is pushing back, arguing the U.S. is not in a recession after all…

“There has never been a time when the Business Cycle Dating Committee did not declare a recession when real GDP declined for two consecutive quarters since the availability of quarterly GDP data,” said Erik Randolph, the Georgia Center for Opportunity’s director of research. “In fact, the opposite is true. There have been two times, since the availability of the data, without two consecutive real GDP declines when the Committee declared them to be recessions. This happened with their declared 1960 and 2001 recessions.”

Randolph said not declaring a recession this time would be “unprecedented.”

“Who knows if and when the NBER Committee will declare whether we’re already in a recession, and for how long,” he added. “But if it doesn’t declare so despite the real GDP data, it would be unprecedented and require a good explanation. In the meantime, GDP gives perhaps the broadest measure of economic activity, giving a strong signal that we’re in a recession until such time economists work out their various methodologies to affirm or deny.”

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