New economic data shows that Georgia is outperforming many states

by Georgia Center for Opportunity | Aug 25, 2022

New economic data shows that Georgia is outperforming many states

Minnesota saw the best change in unemployment, while the District of Columbia reported the worst change, according to WalletHub. Nationwide, 18 states have recovered all their jobs lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, a Georgia non-profit is crediting Georgia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic for its economic standing.

“While the White House is taking credit for the job recovery, the credit really belongs to just 18 states — and Georgia is among them,” Erik Randolph, director of research for the Georgia Center for Opportunity, said in a statement. “These states are the only ones who have recovered all their jobs lost to COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns.

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Georgia policy groups say Biden plan to forgive student loan debt ‘simply transfers the burden to taxpayers’

by Georgia Center for Opportunity | Aug 24, 2022

Georgia policy groups say Biden plan to forgive student loan debt ‘simply transfers the burden to taxpayers’

(The Center Square) — President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive some federal student loan debt received a lukewarm reaction from some Georgia groups who say the policy is unfair and won’t help ease inflation.

“We’re disappointed to see yet another policy out of Washington that creates more problems than it solves,” Eric Cochling, the chief program officer and general counsel for the Georgia Center for Opportunity, said. “In addition to contributing to already runaway inflation, this plan from the White House doesn’t actually forgive debt, it simply transfers the burden to taxpayers.”

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Media Statement: Decrease in the CPI is welcomed good news

by Erik Randolph | Aug 10, 2022

Media Statement: Decrease in CPI is welcomed good news, but new policy is not good news for working class and poor

Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained even in July, reducing the year-over-year inflation rate to 8.5%. That is a reduction in the rate from June, which was 9.1%.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take: “July’s ever-so-slight decrease in the CPI is a sliver of welcome good news in an economic environment where there doesn’t seem to be much good news,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “July’s price level — defined as the weighted average price across the board for goods and services purchased by households — ticked down 0.2% at an annualized rate. But we should pause before getting too enthusiastic about the news. The CPI is still 8.5% higher than 12 months ago, and it is unlikely that the miniscule CPI drop will turn into a sustainable trend. A big reason is federal policy. Congress is about to hike spending yet again with the erroneously named Inflation Reduction Act, and the Federal Reserve acknowledged that its goal is to just bring the inflation rate down to 2%, meaning they will take steps to prevent the price level from coming down from its elevated level. This is horrible policy on both accounts, especially for the working class and the poor, who carry a heavier economic burden with higher prices for what they need to purchase.”

Media Statement: Number of people working hasn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels

by Erik Randolph | Aug 9, 2022

Media Statement: Number of people working hasn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that total non-farm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July. The result was much higher than expected.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take: “Friday’s jobs report is being billed as great news, but peeling back a few layers reveals a worse reality,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “It’s true the number of jobs in the United States is now at pre-pandemic levels. The difference is that the number of people who are actually working hasn’t caught back up. That implies more people are working two or even three jobs to make ends meet in this highly inflationary environment. Meanwhile, wage growth isn’t keeping pace with inflation, putting poor and working class Americans even further behind.”

Media Statement: Assessing the GDP numbers and what it means

by Corey Burres | Jul 28, 2022

Media Statement: Assessing the GDP numbers and what it means

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that in the second quarter of 2022, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.9%. That marks two consecutive quarters of negative growth, a barometer of economic health that economists typically use to define a recession.

The Georgia Center for Opportunity’s (GCO) take:
“It’s now official. We’re having stagflation.

There has never been a time when the Business Cycle Dating Committee did not declare a recession when real GDP declined for two consecutive quarters since the availability of quarterly GDP data,” said Erik Randolph, GCO’s director of research. “In fact, the opposite is true. There have been two times, since the availability of the data, without two consecutive real GDP declines when the Committee declared them to be recessions. This happened with their declared 1960 and 2001 recessions. Who knows if and when the NBER Committee will declare whether we’re already in a recession, and for how long. But if it doesn’t declare so despite the real GDP data, it would be unprecedented and require a good explanation. In the meantime, GDP gives perhaps the broadest measure of economic activity, giving a strong signal that we’re in a recession until such time economists work out their various methodologies to affirm or deny.”

Georgia non-adjusted unemployment numbers increase as economy dips into possible recession

by Corey Burres | Jul 28, 2022

Georgia non-adjusted unemployment numbers increase as economy dips into possible recession

A week after reporting Georgia’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit an all-time low, new numbers show the state’s unemployment rate increased.

Last week, officials said Georgia’s preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2022 was 2.9%, below the national rate of 3.6%. The state’s rate decreased from 5.4% in June 2021…

“There has never been a time when the Business Cycle Dating Committee did not declare a recession when real GDP declined for two consecutive quarters since the availability of quarterly GDP data,” Erik Randolph, director of research for the Georgia Center for Opportunity (GCO), said in a statement. “In fact, the opposite is true. There have been two times, since the availability of the data, without two consecutive real GDP declines when the Committee declared them to be recessions. This happened with their declared 1960 and 2001 recessions.

“Who knows if and when the NBER Committee will declare whether we’re already in a recession, and for how long,” Randolph added. “But if it doesn’t declare so despite the real GDP data, it would be unprecedented and require a good explanation. In the meantime, GDP gives perhaps the broadest measure of economic activity, giving a strong signal that we’re in a recession until such time economists work out their various methodologies to affirm or deny.”

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